Republicans Blink on Redistricting, Kemp Goes 0 for 2—November Is On

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Editor’s Note

This week's newsletter covers the runoff results and what comes next, and there's a lot to unpack. Rick Jackson will carry the Republican banner for Governor, with Mike Collins their nominee against incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff. While Brian Kemp went 0 for 2 with his endorsements, he wasted no time falling in line behind Jackson, a reminder that the Georgia Republican machine consolidates fast. Democrats head into the general with Keisha Lance Bottoms positioned to make history as the first Democrat elected Governor of Georgia since 1998, and Josh McLaurin as a sharp, well-resourced standard-bearer down the ticket. The opportunity is real, but so is the work. Every State House seat we flip this November doesn't just build Democratic power in the legislature; it builds the turnout infrastructure, the volunteer energy, and the organizing muscle that gives Bottoms and McLaurin a better shot at winning statewide. The races are linked — and in the weeks ahead, that work begins in earnest.

Runoff Fatigue: Georgia Gets Round Two

Georgia voters went back to the polls on June 16th for a Republican gubernatorial runoff that felt like a sequel nobody asked for. After a crowded May primary, neither Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones nor billionaire businessman Rick Jackson managed to secure the majority needed to win, dragging the race into another round of spending, attacks, and party infighting.

The result was a stunner. Jackson, the outsider, took 52.6% of the vote, beating the candidate endorsed by both President Trump and Governor Brian Kemp.

Jones entered the race as the favorite. He's been in Georgia politics for years, had Trump's backing, and leaned hard into experience and party loyalty. For many Republican voters, he was the safe choice, the continuation of the Kemp legacy. That message got a boost right at the end when Kemp stepped in with a last-minute endorsement on Sunday, clearly trying to pull the party together before the runoff.

It didn't work. Jackson, a wealthy healthcare executive who largely funded his own campaign, branded himself as an outsider willing to shake things up. His message hasn't always been clean. At times, he tried to be both the disruptor and the successor, aligning himself with Trump while also promising to carry on Kemp's legacy. It's a strategy that tries to appeal to everyone but doesn't fully land anywhere.

Runoff elections are supposed to produce consensus. Instead, this one amplified division. And that division comes at a cost. While Republicans regroup, Democrats have already moved on. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms secured her spot in May, avoiding a runoff altogether and giving her campaign a significant head start heading into November.

Time matters in politics, and Republicans just spent a lot of it fighting each other. Like most runoffs, turnout was lower, meaning a smaller, more motivated group of voters decided the outcome. That raises a bigger question about how representative the result really is.

Now that it's over, the question isn't just who won. It's what kind of party Republicans are walking into November with.

McLaurin Wins Democratic Nomination for Lieutenant Governor

State Senator Josh McLaurin of Sandy Springs won Tuesday's Democratic runoff for Lt. Governor, defeating former State Senator Nabilah Parkes by 10 points to claim the party's nomination for Georgia's second-highest office.

Several factors secured McLaurin's decisive margin. Most significantly, he entered the runoff with an overwhelming institutional advantage. McLaurin was endorsed by over 60 state legislative colleagues, as well as Stacey Abrams, Senator Warnock, and Senator Ossoff.

His campaign also countered plummeting runoff turnout by targeting core voters expected to participate, a disciplined ground game that proved decisive when overall Democratic participation dropped from over one million voters in May to roughly 300,000 on Tuesday.

McLaurin also benefited from a contrast in commitment. He argued that Parkes had resigned her Senate seat during the busiest part of the legislative session to raise money, leaving her district potentially vulnerable ahead of a Republican special election. McLaurin framed himself as the candidate who showed up.

McLaurin now faces Republican State Senator Greg Dolezal in November. With eight years of legislative experience, a sharp anti-Trump record, and Georgia's Democratic establishment behind him, McLaurin heads into the general election as a strong standard-bearer for the party.

Collins Wins GOP Senate Runoff, Sets Up Showdown with Ossoff

Mike Collins won the Republican Senate runoff on Tuesday, defeating Derek Dooley 55-45 and setting up a November matchup with Democratic incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff.

Collins, a trucking company owner who has represented Georgia's 10th congressional district since 2023, leaned hard into his MAGA credentials throughout the campaign. He is the son of the late Mac Collins, who represented Georgia's 8th district from 1993 to 2005. Collins has also served as Chairman of Georgia's Associated Credit Union, one of the state's largest, and ran on a pro-Trump, pro-life, Second Amendment platform.

Dooley is an attorney and former football player who built a decades-long coaching career across college and the NFL. He announced his Senate bid in August 2025 and ran on a "Georgia First" campaign focused on safer communities, higher wages, and reducing Washington spending.

The endorsements told the story. Trump came in late, backing Collins on Truth Social on Sunday, two days before the runoff. Kemp had championed Dooley from the start, arguing the GOP needed a political outsider to take on Ossoff. The result was a clear win for Trump's hand in Georgia politics. Combined with Rick Jackson's gubernatorial runoff win over Burt Jones, Tuesday's results sent Kemp 0-for-2 on his major runoff endorsements in a single night.

Collins now faces Ossoff in November, in a race expected to be one of the most expensive and consequential Senate contests in the country.

Georgia's Special Legislative Session: Updates & Agenda

With the runoffs behind them, Georgia lawmakers are back in Atlanta for a special session on redistricting, property tax law, and election administration.

Going in, the plan was simple: draw new district maps for 2028, since primary voting had already started. That held even as the Supreme Court's ruling in Louisiana v. Callais pushed Tennessee, Alabama, and Louisiana to redraw their own maps ahead of 2026.

Then came a surprise. At the start of the special session, Georgia Republicans abandoned redistricting plans altogether. On Wednesday, House Speaker Jon Burns (R) told Governor Kemp the legislature won't take up redistricting until after the 2028 cycle, citing ongoing litigation and the need to evaluate recent court rulings.

Redistricting has dominated the headlines. A quieter fight over election administration could matter just as much. That eases one fear for Georgia Democrats—a mid-decade gerrymander—but the special session still carries real stakes for 2026.

Republicans are trying to impose property tax relief this special session, but with property taxes relieved, counties could choose to raise their sales taxes 1% to offset the cost. So instead of paying your yearly tax, Georgians will pay every time they go to the grocery store—where prices are already high enough. But the question remains: if Georgia continues to cut taxes, specifically for the wealthy, where is Georgia going to get the income for its statewide services? 

A Georgia law passed in 2024 bans the use of QR codes to count ballots starting July 1, 2026. Replacing that equipment statewide would cost roughly $66 million, according to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. The Republican-led legislature didn't appropriate that money in either the 2025 or 2026 sessions—leaving county election administrators without clear guidelines and a deadline closing in.

Lawmakers now face two options: push the deadline to 2028, or find $66 million and roll out new equipment in under 180 days. House Democrats call the second option unrealistic.

House Minority Leader Carolyn Hugley called the QR code fight a “manufactured issue” and challenged Republicans to come up with a real solution.

Whatever lawmakers decide in the next few weeks will determine how Georgia's elections actually run in 2026—and whether Republicans treat that responsibility seriously, or leave it for administrators to sort out under deadline pressure.

Down-Ballot Wrap: Every Other Runoff That Mattered

The remaining races yielded plenty of close calls and set the stage for November's general election.

Secretary of State. Penny Brown Reynolds, a former Fulton County state judge, host of Family Court with Judge Penny, and former deputy assistant secretary for civil rights at the Biden USDA, defeated Fulton County Commissioner Dana Barrett by 26.2 points to win the Democratic nomination. She will take on State Representative Tim Fleming, a battle that will likely be contentious after the FBI raid earlier this year on the Fulton County election office.

Insurance Commissioner. Former Atlanta City Council member Keisha Sean Waites won the Democratic runoff by just under 60,000 votes and will face Republican incumbent John King in November.

Labor Commissioner. Nonprofit founder and Air Force veteran Nikki Porcher won the Democratic runoff and will challenge incumbent Bárbara Rivera Holmes.

U.S. House. In CD-12, Ceretta Smith won the Democratic nomination and will face Republican Rick Allen. In CD-1, where Republican Buddy Carter vacated the seat to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate, Democrat Amanda Hollowell won the Democratic runoff and will face Republican Jim Kingston in November. In CD-7, attorney Tony Kozycki took the Democratic nomination and will take on Republican incumbent Rich McCormick.

State Senate. If you were watching Senate District 7 and thought you were seeing double, you weren't. SD-7 had two races on the ballot. In the special election runoff to finish former State Senator Nabilah Parkes's term, Adrienne White defeated Aizaz Shaikh to keep the district blue through December. White did not seek the full term. Shaikh gets another shot in November, when he will face State Representative Ruwa Romman, who won the Democratic primary runoff over Rahul Garabadu for the full term. Elsewhere, Larry Johnson won the Democratic nomination in SD-10, and Kevin Abel narrowly defeated Nathalie J. Kanni in SD-14.

State House. A swath of HD runoffs was decided Tuesday. Mathewos Samson beat Demetria Henderson in HD-58. Kenn Collier secured the Democratic nomination in HD-62. HD-68 was a tight one, with Timoria McQueen Saba securing the nomination by 186 votes. HD-177 saw another close finish, with Elise Cason Napier winning by 244 votes. Incumbent State Representative Venola Mason soundly won the Democratic nomination in HD-94. And in HD-117, Kim Thomas Smith ran away with the nomination, beating incumbent Mary Ann Santos by over 75 percentage points. Of note, this runoff saw tons of sports betting PAC money flood in behind Smith and ousted Santos, the only Hispanic female in the State House.

Kemp's Social Legacy in a Changing State

Brian Kemp's social policy legacy is among the most consequential—and controversial—of any recent Georgia governor. His administration reshaped reproductive healthcare, LGBTQ+ rights, and public education across the state.

The centerpiece was HB 481, Georgia's six-week abortion ban, which took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. The law ended abortion access for many Georgians before they knew they were pregnant, making Georgia one of the most restrictive states in the South on reproductive rights. 

Kemp also signed SB 140, banning most gender-affirming medical care for transgender minors, and backed The Riley Gaines Act restricting transgender students from school sports. The ACLU argued that the laws targeted a small, vulnerable population already facing discrimination and political attacks nationwide. 

In education, Kemp championed the Georgia Promise Scholarship Act, a voucher program that redirects public funds to private school tuition. The Southern Educational Foundation, among others, warned it would drain resources from public schools—especially in rural and low-income communities—without addressing teacher shortages or chronic underfunding, signing a joint dissent letter. 

Together, these laws put Georgia at the front of the conservative movement's push to restrict abortion access, limit transgender rights, and privatize education. Kemp's legacy isn't just conservative governance—it's rolled-back rights and public investment at the exact moment Georgia was getting younger, more diverse, and more competitive.

The U.S.-Iran Interim Agreement: What We Know

The United States and Iran have signed a preliminary agreement to end the war that began in late February, when the U.S.-Israel-led military campaign launched and sent oil prices surging.

The human cost was real. The war killed American service members, cost billions, and destabilized global oil markets—and ended with a framework that multiple analysts and at least one senator say falls short of the nuclear deal Trump scrapped in his first term. Sen. Tim Kaine put it plainly: "We are giving a lot more to get a lot less than we got in the JCPOA." Bloomberg reached a similar conclusion, finding the emerging accord risks securing fewer nuclear restrictions than the Obama-era deal Trump spent years calling a disaster. Fox NewsBloomberg

Trump announced the agreement Sunday, but details weren't released until Wednesday at the G7 summit. Both sides declare "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts" and pledge not to initiate further conflict. A 60-day window opens for negotiating a final deal. The U.S. will begin lifting its naval blockade immediately; Iran commits not to develop nuclear weapons and will work to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Sanctions stay in place until a final deal, though the U.S. will issue oil export waivers in the meantime.

The trouble with this agreement, among many, is the concern around Lebanon. Israel has been gaining ground in sovereign Lebanon under the guise of hunting for Hezbollah, and past peace negotiations have failed because Iran refuses to stand down on keeping Israel out of Lebanon. 

Polling consistently showed Americans disapproving of the attacks, and Trump's economic approval ratings took a hit even among his own base. Whether this framework holds is another question—the hardest issues are all still to be negotiated.