Postcards, Polling, and the Press: Six Weeks until Election Day

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Split Ticket Voting & Its Consequences

How does Georgia have two Democratic Senators despite a Republican trifecta in the State government? The answer is split ticket voting – a defining feature of modern Georgia politics.

Split ticket voting occurs when one voter votes for candidates from different parties across the different elections on a ballot and it played a major role in the 2022 midterms.

The race for Governor was between Stacy Abrams and Brian Kemp while the race for Senator was between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker. As we all know, Kemp and Warnock won their respective elections, splitting the ticket. Kemp won by eight percentage points and Warnock won by about three, marking an eleven point swing between the two races. While this is certainly an oversimplification, these results indicate that roughly 10% of voters voted for both Warnock and Kemp.

While neither candidate was considered to be a “radical” member of their respective party, their platforms differed enough to make it surprising that nearly 500,000 Georgians voted for both of them. How did this happen? But more importantly, could this happen again?

To answer the second question, we need to probe the first. The first clue to how Kemp and Warnock won on the same ticket is that both victors in 2022 were incumbents. The second clue is that the majority of split ticket voters identified as independents, and independents made up a significant part of the voter pool. The third clue has to do with candidate quality. While Kemp and Abrams were likely perceived somewhat equally, many Georgians did not feel that Herschel Walker was as qualified as Raphael Warnock.

So could this happen again? Well, if the incumbents (or the incumbent party) win, that would mean an Ossoff/Jackson victory. Are there a lot of independent voters? Well in the primaries, more independents showed up than Republicans. Are there discrepancies in candidate quality? Maybe not so much in the Governor’s race, but Georgians have demonstrated a clear belief that Ossoff is of higher quality than Mike Collins. 

The indicators line up, but do the polling numbers? As it turns out, they line up surprisingly well. Just like in 2022, the 2026 polls show one race as a runaway for the incumbent (Senate) and the other race as neck and neck (Governor). If the current polls are accurate, it may mean an Ossoff/Jackson split ticket win this November.

But there is still time to change this. Independent/moderate voters are often the most willing to change their vote, and because Ossoff has been polling well, there remains a chance that Keisha Lance Bottoms can also still earn their vote.

If you know someone who identifies as an independent or a moderate, stress the importance of voting Democrat up and down the ballot. Most Georgians are unhappy with the status quo; a split ticket vote is a vote for more of the same and Georgia can’t afford more Republican leadership, whether in the U.S. Senate, the Governor’s Mansion, or the State Legislature.

Pizza + Postcards!

As stacks of postcards were spread across the table at Athentic Brewing Company, pens were moving energetically. At this table, over the next 2 hours, we interns did something simple, yet incredibly effective: writing to voters directly.

Last Thursday, rather than having a typical meeting over Zoom, the Athens-based interns at The 2030 Project met together in person to write postcards for the campaigns of Beth Fuller (HD-53) and Ethan Wolfe (HD-151). From 5:30 to 7:30, 2030 interns were able to participate directly in the campaigns of both candidates while also having the opportunity to eat some pizza brought generously by our very own Executive Director, Andrew Ferguson.

As we approach the upcoming November midterm election, it has become vital to assist the campaigns of five Georgia battleground districts identified for 2026. While some wrote postcards for Wolfe, and others for Fuller, interns had the overall goal of completing 15-25 postcards each, leading to over 200 postcards written in this two hour period.

Intending to reach voters of both HD-53 and HD-151, these postcards shared campaign messages while also encouraging Georgians to get out and vote in the upcoming election, whether that be during early voting (starting Oct. 13th) or on Election Day (Nov. 3rd).

Although a postcard may only take a few minutes to write, hundreds of postcards can lead to something much larger, a direct line to voters. This direct connection to voters has proven impact, with studies showing that handwritten postcards can increase voter turnout by as much as 1 to 2 percentage points, an incredibly important margin for these elections.

Writing postcards gives campaigns and volunteers the unique opportunity to communicate directly with voters. This event specifically was a physical reminder of the work that goes into campaigning for an election, while also a reminder that making an impact can be as simple as writing a postcard to those in the community.

Thanks to your contributions, we’ve been able to send out over 1,000 postcards in support of our candidates. From last week's newsletter alone we were able to raise $1,000 of our $1,500 goal. If you can, please consider contributing to help us canvas, send out postcards, and support our candidates across the state.

Speaker Johnson Adjourning House Until After Election

On Wednesday, September 16th, House Speaker Mike Johnson canceled scheduled votes and announced an early recess, adjourning House members and sending them off to campaign until at least November, after the midterm elections are over. This six week recess began sooner than expected and the announcement itself received a fair amount of bipartisan criticism. Notably, the recess announcement took place on the day after Republican Thomas Massie introduced eight articles of impeachment for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the war in Iran. This occurred also as Massie was closing in on the signatures needed for a bipartisan discharge petition to force another vote on the Epstein files. When asked whether he adjourned the House early to avoid the vote on Hegseth's impeachment, Speaker Johnson denied unconvincingly, indicating that the resolution would be "immediately tabled" when the House returns in November.

This move by Speaker Johnson, unsurprisingly, received criticism from Massie, who had lost the primary election to a Trump-backed candidate earlier this year. Speaking to reporters, Massie criticized this move, questioning whether this was wise as the Republicans are in the majority and the "country is burning." Another Republican Congressman, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, called the move to cancel votes on Thursday "unacceptable", citing the House has canceled at least 63 scheduled voting days this Congress, a staggering statistic. On the Democratic side, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also pushed back, citing concerns with unregulated AI developments after Anthropic researchers had raised alarms on the industry's rapid development of the technology in recent weeks. When asked whether regulators should do more to address these serious AI concerns, President Trump dismissed the issue as a whole and called it a hoax.

With concerns about AI developments on the rise, gas prices rising through the roof throughout the country, and the Fed having to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023, the move to adjourn the House early raised eyebrows among lawmakers. Across the country, voters are increasingly frustrated with rising living costs due to the war in Iran, and alarms over AI developments are triggering increasing concerns as well.

Trump’s Obsession Over “Fake News” Prompts Media Boycott

Fake news is back! Last Friday, Trump banned CNN, MS Now, and Politico from the White House Press Pool in attempts to eliminate “fake news.” But our courts have safeguards designed to uphold the law of the land: free speech and free press. Federal Judge, Timothy Kelly (U.S. District for the District of Columbia), temporarily blocked the press ban early this morning. It seems to be a minor win for the U.S. constituents and press against a government that works against our best interest. 

I wish this was something we have never seen before, but it isn’t. There have been multiple times in the past two years that the Trump Administration has attempted to retract the right to free speech and free press in the United States of America. Honestly, undermining the entire existence and foundation of our country. There isn’t much to say about the unconstitutionality of this decision or the other decisions of this administration. However, this does lay the ground for one of the most pivotal midterm seasons we’ve had in recent times. 

At any given chance, the Trump administration and supporters in our government would jump to restrict our rights. But if we turn out and vote in November for Democrats up and down the ballot, we could curb this situation. Electing officials that value our democratic process and the essence of our country is the pinnacle of this season. 

Even after a federal judge ordered their access restored Thursday morning, the White House kept turning reporters away for hours before finally relenting. That's not a government that respects the ruling, it's one that respects nothing until it's forced to.

The 2030 Project Visits the Young Democrats of UGA & ACC

On Wednesday night, The 2030 Project joined the Young Democrats of UGA & ACC to share our mission: flipping the Georgia State House by the end of 2030 through a data-driven, grassroots approach. Then everyone got to work. By the end of the night, Young Dems members had written more than 250 postcards for our candidates.

This fall, the Young Dems have been working hard for Democrats up and down the ballot, from local candidates to statewide races like Sen. Jon Ossoff's reelection and Keisha Lance Bottoms's campaign for governor. They're doing it while carrying full course loads, and many of them are working jobs on top of that. Giving up a weeknight to write postcards for candidates is the kind of commitment that wins close races. To every Young Dem who picked up a pen, thank you. We couldn't do this without you.

AI Deepfakes & Voting?

With the advancement of artificial intelligence, it was only a matter of time before AI deepfakes entered the political arena. While AI can have positive uses in campaigns such as brainstorming ideas, developing voter outreach, and creating advertising content, the technology can also be used to mislead voters. Deepfakes can generate realistic videos, images, or audio that make candidates appear to say or do things that never happened. As this technology becomes increasingly convincing, distinguishing authentic political content from fabricated material may become more difficult for voters.

Georgia lawmakers have attempted to address this growing concern through proposed legislation targeting deceptive AI-generated political content. One proposal sought to prohibit knowingly distributing materially deceptive media within 90 days of an election when it was intended to deceive voters or influence an election. The proposal included exceptions protecting forms of expression such as satire and parody. A first violation could have resulted in a misdemeanor, while subsequent violations could have carried felony penalties, including two to five years in prison and fines of up to $50,000. Georgia voters have already seen this play out: last year, Rep. Mike Collins's Senate campaign released an AI-generated deepfake of Sen. Jon Ossoff, which the Georgia Republican Party defended as satire. 

However, these proposed restrictions did not ultimately become Georgia law. Their consideration still demonstrates the difficult questions lawmakers face as AI becomes more involved in American elections.

Georgia's approach highlights a broader challenge facing campaigns across the country: how to address deliberate digital and AI deception without restricting legitimate political expression. As deepfake technology continues to improve, voters may increasingly need to question sensational political content, verify its original source, and compare information with credible reporting before sharing it. In an era when seeing and hearing may no longer be enough to prove something is real, digital and AI literacy will become an increasingly important part of participating in elections.

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